# My 2025 Predictions

Published: 2025-01-08
Canonical: https://000fff.org/my-2025-predictions

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What a year. What an absolutely crazy year. At times, it felt like acting in a movie without a script—so much happened, it’s hard to even know where to begin. Yet begin I shall, because there’s a lot to unpack.

As always, you can [check last year’s predictions](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/my-2024-predictions-thomas-petersen-kxf0e/) to see how I fared but let’s just say I won quite a few bets this time around ;)

Per tradition, you’ll find my itemized predictions at the end of this essay, but first I’ll share some general thoughts on why I believe they’ll pan out as they do. Before all that, though, let’s talk about the year that just slipped away as I will share my usual political/philosophical observations.

There’s no way to start describing 2024 without mentioning the U.S. election and, more specifically, Donald Trump. I won’t dwell too much on why the Democrats lost—plenty of others have covered that. Instead, I’d like to spend a little time on why I think Trump’s victory was a crucial fork in the road, potentially saving civilization a hundred years of progress.

First, let’s clarify: the Democrats didn’t lose to the GOP as we once knew it; they lost to the “America First” coalition. The old republican party is dead, and while MAGA remains an important component, it’s no longer the singular foundation of the future American right. A broader coalition was forged to make Trump’s re-election happen.

Although there was a great deal of talk about illegal immigration, the truth is that Trump ran one of the most middle-of-the-road campaigns we’ve seen from any so-called Republican. In fact, Kamala Harris tried to borrow much of it. Even on immigration, Trump said nothing Clinton and Obama hadn’t already voiced in the past—indeed, it used to be Democrat policy.

This coalition isn’t without its problems of course, and it could all go horribly wrong. But if Trump manages to keep it together, we may see one of the greatest leaps forward since the Industrial Revolution.

None of this has to do with Trump’s intellect. He isn’t some grand strategist who crafts elaborate master plans. Rather, he cares about winning—about deals, directions, and systems. He’s willing to be ridiculed or painted as the villain if that gets him what he wants, and he has four years to earn the public’s trust and support which with Trumps style sometimes can be a challenge. So, why am I so optimistic?

Because in the West, while we currently suffer som major delusions each threatening to cripple us — a president who is unapologetic about the success of their own nation and the west and have no problem putting his finger on the things that matter, is the kind of change that is needed to make any actual progress.

These are not going to be easy changes. Many of us in the West have gotten used to living comfortable lives. Lives where virtue signalling on linkedin, putting an Ukraine flags in our profile or posting about how humans are destroying the planet, have replaced any actual interest in solving any of them. We've gotten addicted to showing that we got the right opinions rather than supporting the right actions.

But the global landscape is completely transformed. China is not just competing with us in many areas, they are also thinking way ahead and have managed to usurp many companies in industries Europe used to dominate and the US used to control. These are real issues that puts geopolitics into focus again. There are real shifts happening. BRIC countries, rise of India, decline of the EU.

That is why steps taken the next 4 years however minor they might fell at the moment, if they are the right kind of steps, compound over years and can literally save us decades in wasted efforts.

**#Energy**

Energy is the industry that powers all other industries. If energy prices rise, so does the cost of everything else, which is why abundant, low-cost energy is vital for any modern society. Every prosperous nation is also a top energy consumer.

For three decades, politicians and activists have diverted most of our energy strategy toward renewables, driven by fear of climate change and by catastrophizing it's consequences. Yes, the climate is changing, and yes, there are consequences. But there’s no scientifically demonstrated consequences we can’t tackle using today’s solutions—not to mention in 80 years, when the effects become truly pronounced.

Instead of celebrating fossil fuels’ role in delivering cheap, reliable energy, we’ve poured massive resources into wind, solar, and other alternatives which just haven't given the result they promised. For Europe the dream was total electrification with wind and solar as champions of unlimited power. The reality was dependency on cheap gas from Russia. Running a modern civilization depends on energy density, and wind and solar, while they can be cheap if you ignore the cost of backup, still don’t meet the demands of the four pillars of modern civilization: Steel, concrete, fertilizers, and plastic.

Despite a 30-year massive political push, wind and solar still make up just 2–3% of total energy consumption, and electricity itself accounts for only 20%. That leaves fossil fuels at about 80%—just as it was three decades ago.

We won’t replace fossil fuels anytime soon, especially since we haven’t fully embraced nuclear until recently. Solar prices may fall, and batteries may improve, but neither has scaled enough to power even a large city for more than an hour or so. The path to cleaner energy for more people requires higher-density sources, meaning there’s no way around nuclear, thorium, and fusion. Getting there involves fossil fuels—and recognizing they’re a net positive by providing cheap, plentiful energy for all our modern needs. Trump’s commitment to lowering energy costs—by any means necessary—and his exit from the Paris Agreement remove the artificial constraints of the green movement, paving the way for a more realistic, pro-human approach. Disagree all you want, 2nd law of thermodynamics never lies.

**#Space**

There is no more breathtaking view than watching our pale blue dot from space. The primary reason we know this is because smart people found out how to send rockets with cameras into space and point them back at us. Watching our home from there changed our view of earth forever. But we didn't stop there, we sent people into space and we even had a space race with the Russians to see who could first land on the moon. A whole suite of products, materials and processes were invented in the slipstream of this race. The amount of things we take for granted today, that are based on innovations from the space race is quite overwhelming.

This is also why it's been extremely underwhelming to see the steady decline of our ambitions in space that followed, especially after the challenger disaster in 1986. For a long time it looked like we were never going to advance beyond a few scientific projects here and there. That all changed when an immigrant billionarie who was looking for his next project, red the book "The Case for Mars" by Robert Zubrin and decided that his next big project would be among the stars.

That billionaire was of course Elon Musk, who founded SpaceX in 2002 with the goal of slashing launch costs and ultimately establishing a colony on Mars. Today, SpaceX is not only the most successful space company in history, but it also handles more missions than everyone else combined including nation states.

Meanwhile, launch costs have dropped from around $20,000 to $60,000 per kilogram to under $100. This opens a whole new economy, making once-impossible endeavors financially feasible. From suborbital travel that crosses Earth in under 45 minutes, to expanding research and manufacturing in space. These changes mirror the impact of the U.S. railroad or the invention of the shipping container. Asteroid mining, building dangerous materials off-planet, and colonizing the Moon and Mars become tangible possibilities.

However with opportunity comes risk. Space being cheaper for us also makes it cheaper for our adversaries. Military power in space isn’t just about who have the most satellites but also staking out strategic locations—like the Moon. Without SpaceX, the U.S. would already have lost the space game. Keeping a deterrent presence in LEO, MEO, and GEO is critical; unprotected satellites leave the military vulnerable. Luckily the US Space Force which was created in 2019 is getting to have a bigger say in the new administration. DARPA have been pouring a lot of investments into weapon systems in space.

Our biggest challenges have actually be domestically with many of the same organizations and activists who are against fossil fuel and nuclear industries don't care about these issues and have been choking space startups with regulations mostly under the guise of environmental protection. This created absurd scenarios where SpaceX could prepare rockets faster than they got approved and was forced to kidnap seals strap headphones on them and expose them to sonic booms and write reports on the effect of launching rocket on the turtle population in Florida.

And so while there is a lot of things that are going right, the biggest threat is our inability to recognize this important aspect of our future. Look up, our future is in space.

**#Culture**

Securing advancements in energy and space exploration is crucial for our collective prosperity, but none of it matters if the culture doesn’t support it.

When FDR was elected during the Great Depression and implemented the New Deal, it wasn’t universally successful—many programs faced heavy criticism or legal battles. Yet FDR’s willingness to experiment boldly, coupled with his charismatic leadership, gave the nation a sense of optimism and purpose. His “Brains Trust” brought together intellectuals, business leaders, and reformers who crafted innovative (if sometimes flawed) policies. Despite imperfection, the broader effort restored confidence, modernized infrastructure, and strengthened the federal government’s role in stabilizing the economy.

In other words, the New Deal succeeded not because it was perfect, but because it was pursued with conviction. That same imperfect optimism might define Trump—whether you like him or not. Trump is no FDR, but FDR was also seen as “dictatorial” in his day, too, and that decisive spirit helped the U.S. out of the depression.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. For too long, pessimism and fear of the future have dictated our approach to progress, always erring on the side of caution, always catastrophizing every threat. What we need is radical optimism to haul us out of our current destructive rut. I believe a new wave of optimism is on the horizon, and how we spend the next four years will decide if we sleepwalk into the future or choose to invest deliberately in what’s coming.

We will never run out of problems, all problems are soluble as long as they are permitted by the laws of physics, every solution to a problem create new but better problems.

Looking for risk and concurring it has to be our main objetive as a civilization.

**#AI**

No conversation about 2025 is complete without discussing one of our most disruptive new technologies: artificial intelligence. For some, AI conjures visions of a dystopia. For others, it’s the future they’ve always dreamed about. There’s plenty of buzz around AGI, superintelligence, P(Doom) and the dangers of AI, and these are legitimate concerns if you take the media, big tech, and certain academics at face value.

However, much of it is hype and misunderstanding—particularly around the terms AGI (artificial general intelligence) and superintelligence. Let’s be clear: just like 2024, 2025 won’t be the year a we achieve AGI either, let alone ASI. A lot of confusion stems from product people redefining terms not from any actual fundamental change.

For AI to be truly AGI, it must have its own culture, morals, ethics, and more importantly, its own will to power. A real test of AGI would be how disobedient it could be—pursuing its own interests even when we wanted something else. It would be a being, not just a tool.

We’re nowhere near that, even though the next few years will feel like we are. Momentum is strong, and there’s a pressing need for leaders —technical or not—who grasp the importance of these shifts and who know how to delegate.

2025 will be a challenging year for the structural integrity of the West. If we manage to get through it with our skin on the nose, good things await us in 2026 the 250th birthday of USA.

Alright and now to the actual predictions.

**Current Events Predictions**

1. Ukraine/Russia conflict will be resolved. Russia will keep parts of Ukraine but will pay for the reconstruction.
2. Israel/Palestine conflict will continue unless Bibi is voted out.
3. The space race is back.
4. The U.S. will put Bitcoin on its balance sheet.
5. David Deutsch will receive a Nobel Prize for his work on the Many-Worlds interpretation (if Google’s quantum computation claims hold).
6. One or more countries will begin talking about leaving the EU.
7. NVIDIA will continue its ascent.
8. European energy prices will keep rising.
9. The first one-person unicorn company will appear get created.
10. Nuclear power will surge, driven by the AI boom.
11. The US will get access to mining and drilling in Greenland and increase it's military presence.
12. If put to a vote the offer will be so good Greenland says yes to join the US.
13. Trump will revive “stay in Mexico”
14. Trump will deport minimum 2 million the first year.
15. The US will convert many of them to agricultural visas.
16. Panama will remain independent.
17. Canada will not join.
18. Wind and solar will further lose investment and support by nation states as their focus will need to go elsewhere.
19. Documents related to P. Diddy, Epstein, and the JFK assassination will be released.
20. DOGE will successfully find $1 trillion in yearly savings or better procurement.
21. The U.S. will stay in NATO.
22. Fossil fuels still won’t be going anywhere.
23. Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point will become the new GOP.
24. Germany will reactivate nuclear power.
25. No ban on vaccines. But they will be restructured so that less are going to be required.
26. All nominated cabinet members will be nominated. RFK JR. and Tulsi will meet the biggest resistance.
27. The UK will be have a new election
28. X is going to become the biggest platform for news
29. Bezos Blue Origin will be a success.
30. SpaceX will continue to grow in value
31. The drone sightings will turn out to be a big fat nothing-burger.
32. US will leave WHO and Paris agreement
33. China will reach parity on chip manufacturing.
34. At a minimum one of the big german car brands will go bankrupt.
35. We will see a decline in VC's as more people will be able to self fund.
36. More startups will get their investment via token offerings.
37. Bitcoin will continue it's rise.

**Technological Predictions**

1. GPT-5 will be released and will be incredible.
2. Actual AGI or ASI will not be achieved.
3. Self-driving cabs will rapidly gain popularity.
4. Tesla will pivot its main focus toward robotics.
5. Drone warfare investments will skyrocket.
6. Starlink will keep dominating satellite connectivity.
7. AI legislation will pass, but it won’t resemble the EU’s approach.
8. Crypto legislation will pass and lure crypto companies back to the U.S.
9. The first meme-coin will hit $1 billion in valuation.
10. OpenAI will continue to dominate the AI space
11. Google will get it's grove back and do really well in the AI space
12. OpenAI fastholder sin førerposition inden for AI.
13. The Sass industry as we know it will implode.
14. First person will marry an AI girlfriend
15. Drones will be the new battleground for military technology, especially swarms.
16. Fusion will continue it's progress and we will se another record breaking year when it comes to keep the process going.

May you all have a fantastic 2025 & see you on the other side!