# So how accurate were my 2024 predictions? Lets find out.

Published: 2024-12-08
Canonical: https://000fff.org/so-how-accurate-were-my-2024-predictions-lets-find-out

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Last Friday, I attended a Christmas lunch at the Danish-American Chamber of Commerce held at the Harvard Club and was asked if I would say a few words about what I believe will happen in 2025.

The reason was that they had read my 2024 predictions and wanted my thoughts on the new year. You can read about those when they are released at the end of the year.

But, of course, I went through the list and thought it would be fun to review it and see which predictions I got right and which I didn’t, along with a few comments.

You can read the original post which includes the entire reasoning behind here: [https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/my-2024-predictions-thomas-petersen-kxf0e/](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/my-2024-predictions-thomas-petersen-kxf0e/)

I defined my predictions the following way:

✅ Correct

❌ Wrong

[?] Undetermined

(✅) Technically correct however...

(❌) Technically wrong however...

### Let’s start with the geopolitical predictions.

✅ More states will attempt to ban Trump from running.

✅ The Supreme Court overturns the ban preventing Trump from running.

✅ Biden does not run.

It was clear that he was physically unable to be president, and anyone who did not suffer from TDS could see that.

❌ Newsom or Hillary will take his place.

I was wrong on that one; I didn’t think the Democrats in earnest would allow someone like Kamala to run. Just seemed too much of a DEI hire without any real accomplishments behind her.

✅ The U.S. election will be won by Trump if he can handle the abortion debate and stay out of prison.

[?] Most recently, when a new president takes office, Ukraine will be forced to enter into an agreement with Russia that makes certain geographical concessions.

We have to wait until January 21.

✅ Covid what?

✅ Nvidia will continue its skyward trajectory.

✅ Our use of fossil fuels will also continue to rise from last year.

✅ EU energy prices will rise further.

✅ Inflation will remain high.

High enough that it was one of the reasons Trump was elected.

✅ Private debt will increase further.

(✅) The first AI cult emerges.

Theta Noir actually emerged last year, so not quite accurate.

(❌) The USA will follow suit with AI regulation.

Fortunately, that didn’t happen as Newsom ultimately backed out, but we were very close to the same catastrophe as the EU’s AI Act. However with the election of David Sacks as AI and Crypto Czar, we will get AI regulation that will make sense which is amazing.

✅ Israel will continue to pursue Hamas until the end of the year or they are adequately defeated.

✅ More will follow the New York Times and take legal action against OpenAI for copyright infringement (or ‘duplicative language,’ as they called Claudine Gay’s plagiarists ;))

[?] X will report the best financial results since Musk took over.

We’ll see when the year is over, but we know they have more users than ever (even though quite a few moved to BlueSky, they will likely return) and that Trump’s election has caused advertisers to return to the platform.

✅ Support for nuclear power will seriously take off.

It was quite clear to me that AI requires a lot of energy and that this cannot be solved by wind and solar since they neither provide enough, are stable sources, nor have high enough energy density. On top of that keep in mind that wind and solar are still less than 2% of worlds energy consumption so it's still not important for all the bruhaha about it by politicians as it's unreliable.

✅ Support for wind and solar will decrease further, and many more projects like those in 2023 will be scrapped.

There were no bidders for the last offshore wind tender in the North Sea. Vestas is in decline and with Trump coming in the market will change.

(✅) AI fakes will be misused in the election campaign by both sides.

Yes, but not as much as one might think, and I didn’t have the imagination to imagine that they would try to push the idea of cheap fakes.

### And now to the technological/scientific predictions

✅ Stable Diffusion will implode.

Unfortunately, that was correct, and their CEO was also fired.

(❌) The first full-length AI feature film will begin production.

Now we have to see what Sora from OpenAI can achieve, but even though several films have been made that have won various awards, we are not there yet.

❌ OpenAI will introduce GPT-5.

They are not going to do that this year anyway, as they have just introduced 0.1 and are working on 4.5. But we are almost there.

✅ It will be fantastic but not as big a leap as expected.

Although it has not been released yet, we now know that there are diminishing returns on new models.

✅ The first open-source model achieves the same level as a basic GPT-4.

QwQ is an example of this.

✅ Solana and Ethereum win the crypto battle and become the primary standards.

(✅) We finally get legislation in the crypto area.

With the election of David Sacks and Trump’s positive stance on crypto, this is inevitable and exactly what the market needs. So I would say I was right even though it won’t be introduced until January 2025.

✅ AI agents become the primary battleground when it comes to AI.

✅ ChatGPT will still be the best and most successful LLM by the end of 2024.

✅ We still will not be anywhere near AGI.

As mentioned, I am preparing for 2025, which I believe will be a wild year, so stay tuned.

✅ Investment in AI will continue to rise.

(❌) The first AI-based pop music will shoot to the top of the charts.

BBL Drizzy is definitely a hit but maybe not as big as the title suggests.

(✅) We will see a number of cancer products get approved.

We have seen several “accelerated approvals” in 2024 more than before, but I have had difficulty verifying the final numbers.

✅ Investment in fusion and thorium companies will be the highest ever.

✅ SpaceX will succeed with Starship and Superheavy.

(❌) Google and Facebook will begin to see the impact of AI on their ad revenue.

That’s true; they are seeing it, but it is primarily positive, whereas I predicted it would be negative. However, it will likely come.

✅ More progress on the fusion front.

All in all I think I did pretty well this year and so subscribe to get my 2025 predictions which will be released end of the year.